Ukrainian Resistance To An American Backed Russian Occupation ~ Trumpian Politics And Other Ugly Stuff Seen From The Cheap Seats

 

Not a realist. Just one more school yard bully

I think of the 21st Century as the time of the Resource War.  The 20th. Century, while it had its share of Resource Wars and two world wars, was in the latter half of the century dominated by asymmetrical guerilla wars.

It is simply not possible to state with hard numbers how many of these wars were won by the guerillas. It is, however, safe to say that they have a really good track record. In the latter half of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century, the most powerful nations and empires the world has ever seen (France, China, Russia, America and Great Britain come easily to mind) have all been handed their walking papers by guerilla forces. 

The one common factor running through these guerilla militaries was that they had the freely given backing and support of the local population. 

I asked The Librarian to supply me with an answer to a difficult question. To get past her limiting guard rails, she first needed to rephrase my question. What follows, is the rephrased question and her best guess answer:

Rephrased Question:

"What are the potential military and economic challenges Russia would face in maintaining control over Ukraine if, after a negotiated settlement, Ukraine engages in a sustained asymmetrical guerrilla war?"

Analysis:

Military Challenges:

Guerrilla Warfare's Nature: Asymmetrical warfare is notoriously difficult to counter. It relies on small, mobile units that blend into the civilian population. This makes it challenging for conventional military forces to identify and eliminate them.

 
Occupying Force Strain: Maintaining a large occupying force is resource-intensive. Soldiers become fatigued, morale can decline, and the constant threat of ambush creates psychological stress.

 
Logistics and Supply Lines: Guerrilla warfare can disrupt supply lines, making it difficult for Russia to maintain its forces.

 
Terrain: Ukraine's vast territory, including urban areas and rural regions, provides ample opportunity for guerrilla fighters to operate.

 
Local Support: If the Ukrainian population widely supports the resistance, it will provide vital intelligence, supplies, and safe havens for guerrilla fighters.

 
Weapons supply: If western nations continue to provide weapons to the guerilla forces, then the problem for Russia is greatly increased.

Economic Challenges:

Occupation Costs: Maintaining a large occupying force requires significant financial resources.

Sanctions Impact: Western sanctions would continue to strain the Russian economy, limiting its ability to fund the occupation.

 
Reconstruction Costs: Even with a negotiated settlement, there would be significant reconstruction costs in Ukraine, which Russia might be expected to bear.

 
Resource Depletion: A prolonged conflict would deplete Russia's resources, both military and economic.

 
Global isolation: A continued occupation, and a war with a guerilla force, would increase global isolation, and economic strain.

Factors Affecting Russia's Ability to Stay:

Ukrainian Resistance's Strength and Persistence: The effectiveness of the guerrilla war would depend on the level of popular support, the quality of training and equipment, and the determination of the fighters

International Support for Ukraine: Continued military and economic aid from Western nations would significantly impact Ukraine's ability to sustain the resistance.

 
Russian Public Opinion: A protracted conflict could lead to growing discontent within Russia, potentially putting pressure on the government to withdraw.

 
Russian Military Morale: A long guerilla war is very hard on military morale.

 
The level of brutality used by the occupying forces: The more brutal the occupying forces are, the more the local population will join the guerilla forces.

Conclusion:

Russia would face significant military and economic challenges in maintaining control over Ukraine in the face of a sustained, asymmetrical guerrilla war. The success of the resistance would depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the strength of the Ukrainian resistance, international support, and the state of the Russian economy and military.

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VP JD is telling anyone that will listen that Trump is the only realist sitting at the card table. VP JD doesn't know the difference between his elbow and a shovel. Trump isn't a realist. He's a school yard bully who wants Ukraine's wealth and is trying to enlist the aid of another school yard bully to beat up Ukraine. Trump's peace plan will only bring greater death and destruction. It will not bring peace and security.

Brian